 |
| courtesy: Pathfinder.gr |
Instead of
using a single model, the researchers developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting
models to eliminate the uncertainty associated with a single prediction
model.
The authors
say "Taking model uncertainty into account, we project that life
expectancy will increase in these 35 countries with a probability of at least
65% for women and 85% for men, although the increase will vary across
countries.”
South Korean
women are projected to have the highest life expectancy of more than 86·7 years
in 2030 with 90% probability. This is equivalent to current highest life expectancy
worldwide. The model also indicated that there is 57% probability that the life
expectancy at birth for South Korean women will be higher than 90 years in
2030, "a level that was considered virtually unattainable at the turn of
the 21st century by some researchers," the authors write.
Earlier gain
in life expectancy in South Korea is due to decrease in infectious disease rate
in infant and young adult but the increased longevity of the older groups is
due to decrease in death rate from chronic diseases. Other contributing factors
include improved nutrition, better access to health care, new medical technologies
and control of many infectious diseases. South Korean and Japanese women also
have lower BMI, and lower B.P than western counterparts.
South Korean
women are followed by women from France, Spain, and Japan and are expected to occupy
the top 3 spots in the 2030 list.
Men still lag
in this projection with 95% probability of surpassing 80 years in 2030, and a
greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years in South Korea,
Australia, and Switzerland. Similarly, Men in South Korea and many central
European emerging economies like Hungry and Slovenia are going to make large
gains in life expectancy by 2030 similar to men in Denmark, Ireland, and a few
other western European nations. Currently Australia has the highest life
expectancy for men.
In 2010,
women had a higher life expectancy than men by 3·9 to 8·5 years. This gap will
be narrowed and men will catch up with the female life expectancy by 2030 in
every country expect Mexico where female life expectancy is predicted to
increase more than male life expectancy.
Most of the
projected gains in life expectancy is due to enhanced longevity
in older ages specially women, increasing the aging trends of industrialized
countries. In 19 countries, one in two 65-year-old women have another 23 years
to live and in other 11 countries 24 years to live.
Similarly, Male
life expectancy at age 65 years is projected to surpass 20 years in 22 countries
by 2030, “a level that has not been achieved so far” says the authors.
Of the 35
countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have
the lowest projected life expectancy both for men and women.
Currently
USA, has the lowest life expectancy at birth than other high income countries and
is expected to fall back further in 2030.
USA has the highest Maternal and infant mortality rate, Homicide index
and BMI for any high-income country. The life expectancy in US has also stagnated
or have declined for few population groups in recent years. The authors quote "The USA is also the
only country in the OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development] without universal health coverage, and has the largest share of
unmet healthcare needs due to financial costs."
In an accompanying
editorial Dr. Santosa write “Forecasting life expectancy at birth and at age 65
years can help governments and health services to make the right investments in
health, such as averting deaths due to infectious diseases and reducing
maternal and child mortality. Achieving universal health coverage is worthy,
plausible, and needs to be continued.”
Full text of the article here.
Full text of the editorial here.
